Red Team Thoughts?

I saw this quote on Facebook this morning and thought there was some interesting analysis at work here,

“Former red team planner for the government here. If there was a revolution in the US, the rest of the world would get involved, fast. Depending on the type of uprising, there is a large chance that it would not be a quick affair. It would be brutal, it would be bloody, and the US government could start a global scale war. Here are the top ten issues that came up.

1) The US power grid can be taken down by a series of “surgical strikes” with the exception of the Texas grid. By surgical strikes, I mean a few marksmen (US army-tier Marksmen–the minimum requirement) hitting certain spots on the grid would fuck a lot of the military and government because they need the grid more than Bubba and his friends do. Additionally, while all government agencies have backup generators, they will be hard pressed dealing with the resultant looting and other madness that would come with power outages. This would effectively create another front for the military. It would also turn the people against the government more quickly and paralyze the government’s propaganda machine. Worse still–the key points of the US power grid are publicly obtainable information, and not only are the points too many to be effectively guarded, they are not guarded anyway.

2) The estimated desertion rate in case of a civil war is 75% in the case of a left-wing president. 50% of that would be assumed to immediately betray the president. The remaining (treasonous) military would be fighting its own. Yet another front created in the war. Additionally, there is an assumed 25-50% desertion or outright betrayal rate in three letter government agencies (FBI, CIA, NSA, ATC, TSA, etc.). Additionally, it is assumed that 5% of the initial 50% betrayers would stay in their job and become saboteurs. 10% of that 50% would contain key information that would be of critical danger to the US government. Of that 10%, 1% would be able to deliver that information to the US’ foreign enemies. What you should get from this is that the second the United States government declares war on its own is the second it ceases to exist as the state we know it.

3) “Tea baggers,” “right-wing extremists,” and “oath keepers” which are considered untrained racists who aren’t “good with a gun” often are A) veterans who now have more time to have fun at the range, sometimes more than some Army units or Marine units. In addition to previous military training, B) often camp and do other outdoor activities–more than many in the military do, as the focus has gone away from field exercises, and C) often have better equipment–outside of armor and heavy weapons–than the military. However, C) is kind of irrelevant because many of the places in which these people could hide would make the kind of war the US fights with the equipment they use pointless.

4) Outside influence is a huge problem. Russia has already stated they would back a Texas separatist movement, and right now we already have enough problem keeping Islam in check. The second the US has to fight in a “civil war” is the second it becomes a proxy war between NATO and whoever wants to mess with America. While America has amazing nuclear and air defense, if it comes to a civil war you have to assume that in a best cast scenario the US military is going to be operating at 50% capacity at best. Shit would go down. Hard. And fast. And if Russia–spoiler alert: one of the best militaries in the world at fighting in an urban environment–sent trainers and helpers to rebels, you can reliably bet that they would also possibly deliver weapons to them. So instead of fighting “Timmy TeaBagger,” you are fighting “Timmy TeaBagger who is buddies with Vlad.”

5) A civil war is not just the US versus the rebels. There will be looting. There will be rioting. Cities will burn. The National Guard cannot fight both the rebels and rioters in a city that would also cut off their supplies. Additionally, if you don’t think that the rebels will send in instigators into the cities–or worse, stand alone actors (A Lone Wolf on steroids. Think Timothy McVeigh, but instead of one van they have a whole fleet of them. A good movie example would be Bane)–you would be mistaken. If the US government cannot even help its own people, why would its own people support the remaining (treasonous) military? Worse yet, if someone emptied out prisons (There are more prisoners in the US than there are people in the entire Chinese Army), you would have more crime than the police could ever handle.

6) Logistics and infrastructure in the US are crumbling and failing. Any war fought against a rebellion in the US would be a logistical nightmare, even before the rebels started going full Al-Qaida and putting IEDs in the road. A retired general who was contracting with us on the team said, “The only thing holding together the US’ infrastructure is duct tape and the will of the Department of Transportation. And often enough, there isn’t enough duct tape.” Your most loyal cities to the US government, as we polled, are also the most logistically easy to cut off. NYC? San Fran? L.A.? D.C.? Baltimore? Most of them require crossing water to enter, from certain directions. Most of them have critical airports. Some of them have critical ocean ports. If anything happened to just TWO of the cities on the list, it would create a logistical clusterfuck.

7) Your “Johnny Reb” and “Timmy TeaBagger” states (i.e., “red” states) all have something most of your “oh so progressive,” “Aren’t we so European,” “Oh my god, we are just like Sweden,” blue states don’t. Blues are mainly consumer states. Reds are producer states. Urban areas don’t have farms. The second that shit goes down, realize a lot of those blue areas are likely to starve. In a civil war scenario, we predicted that at least 10,000 people would die of starvation if the war was not finished in a year. The numbers get worse after that. Or better, rather, for the country after the war.

8) The US has way too many choke points, and the government forces would often be on the wrong side of them. This ties into the logistical nightmare, but it also has to do with an odd phenomena. Liberals like to live near the ocean. Many of the dividers of the country, like the Rocky Mountains, the Mississippi River, Appalachia, the Missouri River (fun fact: the biggest choke point for the US government is in Missouri) are red state areas. Sure, air travel is a thing, but a majority of the US government’s needs would have to travel by ground. Even still, many of the major airports are outside of the city. Of course, the US would use military base air fields, but if civil war did break out… which bases would be safe? Which ones would have fallen to the deserters?

9) PR Nightmare. Every rebel killed on CNN would be spun as “the US government killed X Civilians today in a strike” on foreign news and pirate media not owned by the government. That is–as pointed out earlier–if the US media could even function in a civil war or uprising. Your “rebel scum” know that the main thing that holds together the US–nay life in the US as we know it–is the 24 hour news cycle and the media. The second it’s gone, you are going to have urban anarchy. If you are from America, can you imagine a day without TV, newspaper, or Internet? Your average urban youth can’t. If you don’t think that isn’t going to cause rioting, you must have a real high regard for how much restraint they have. Assume in a civil war that your ability to talk to the people is compromised. Also assume that in the case of a civil war that rebels may know how to monitor conversations like the US does, as there are manuals online on how to do so.

10) This one is either 1 or 10, depending on who is asked. The US will never nuke its own. The second it does, they have lost the civil war and other countries will come to “liberate” the US from its own “repressive regime.” Additionally, if any general, minuteman, nuke tech, or nuke sub captain decided to side with the rebellion, the US government is immediately SOL.

In short: The second that a “civilian uprising” or “extremist group terrorist attack” turns into “civil war” is the second the US loses. As a result, you will never see a civil war. You will see Waco, you will see Bundy Ranch, you will see all sorts of militant group confrontations and maybe even some skirmishes. But the US government fears its own people way the fuck too much to ever start a civil war.

As an American, I want all other Americans here to remember this. The government is against you, almost openly now, but they also know that they cannot win if it comes to open war. We have a trump card they cannot match. If it comes to a fight, THEY WILL LOSE, so there are elements in the establishment who will do absolutely everything in their power to prevent it from coming to that. The US Government is not in support of its people, and the people are not in support of the government.

It is within the means of certain interests to start World War III simply as a distraction to avoid an American Civil War, because, by their reckoning, it is better to ruin other “lesser” nations like Syria and spill the blood of patriots than lose their own grip on power. ***********YOU HEARD RIGHT. WORLD WAR III ITSELF COULD BE A DELIBERATE FALSE FLAG TO PREVENT A POWER CHANGE IN AMERICA. REMEMBER THIS.*********** “

Whether this guy is right or wrong, he’s at least doing some critical thinking. What are your thoughts?

JCD

American by BIRTH, Infidel by CHOICE

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19 thoughts on “Red Team Thoughts?

  1. Can’t say I disagree. It’s a complicated mess and who in their right mind wants to step in it by sending ‘trainers’ or ‘observers’. Any foreign entity will wait to see how it plays out before committing. No matter what, there will always be someone with their finger on the button.

    Rights aren’t rights if someone can take them away. They’re privileges. That’s all we’ve ever had in this country, is a bill of temporary privileges. And if you read the news even badly, you know that every year the list gets shorter and shorter. Sooner or later, the people in this country are gonna realize the government … doesn’t care about you, or your children, or your rights, or your welfare or your safety… It’s interested in its own power. That’s the only thing. Keeping it and expanding it wherever possible. – George Carlin

  2. Good friend sent this to me the other day. I meant to forward to you and forgot. I think he’s pretty accurate personally. Regardless, it’s at a minimum quite plausible.

  3. A big problem with the above is that the author has forgotten that in any fanatical ideology the most insane idea is often the one that gets put into play, and the insane fanatics are now running the government at almost every level. IMO there are a few things he gets very wrong. MANY, perhaps most, of the neo-con “deep state” WANT civil war. They see it as a way to end the republic and establish a “permanent Imperium”. They believe that they cannot lose. They WILL use napalm , nukes and nerve gas before they allow a modern “confederacy” to win. The people who hold power now will kill every living thing on earth before they give up that power. No one from outside the US would get involved in the US civil war part II until both sides had been bled white. The cost to Russia (or anyone else)would be too high in both blood and treasure, and the “bad blood” would linger for generations. Government has less control than they think they do. A civil war could happen at any time. When it breaks out all bets are off and all plans go out the window, and god help us it will last for a generation or more.

  4. personally, i think it’ll kick off like the veteran’s march a few years ago, only we keep going and somebody gets nervous…….that said, he’s pretty spot on except 10k starving would be Week One. many folks go to the store every day for that day’s meals, no storage at all. it’ll take one to three months for fema, dhs and big army to gather themselves enough to truck in food for the cities. many hundreds of thousands will starve in that time, per city. also the nasty guard defection rate is way off. unless the govt sees it coming and deploys the ng overseas, where the govt can’t use it nor the rebels, 90 percent will side with the rebels or just not show up. i know, i spent 30 years in it. they won’t see it as treason/defection, more like defending the homeland from a govt that has become foreign to them. many units will go intact, leadership and all. i asked my local o6 what he would do over a beer. he said he wasn’t sending “his boys”(they have deployed overseas several times together) up into the mountains to fight other Americans that will likely have better support than his unit.

  5. I’ve seen a variation of this, if not the same article, some time ago…
    Yes…. the author has applied critical thought,
    and has hit upon several likely scenarios.
    But regardless what comes our way, we must continue to prepare for
    any, and all, eventualities…to include communicating with each other.
    No matter what one does, life is like a game of chess…you must play
    to win. Stay alert, keep informed, and always be asking yourself,
    “What if ?”

  6. I have always argued that a good analog for the next civil war here in America is the Spanish Civil War. But then again, Bracken has an existing formula for the next civil war: Rwanda x Bosnia = ??

    I think the author is spot on, and that is frightening.

  7. What are my thoughts,I hope to hell it doesn’t happen!

    That said,tis why folks to best of ability prepare for any disaster while still having a life,could be natural or in this case man made.Articles of this nature can be very depressing,that said,I think back to the storms in Louisiana and the cajun navy and army,just average Jills and Jacks getting together to help others,tis these little acts of kindness by strangers that make me give a damn and try and learn from them,including how they helped others and what do I have to perhaps pitch in.

  8. Sigh…..,on news right now reports of explosions/folks dead at concert in Manchester,England.The one tiny hope I see is pics of fellow concert goers helping move wounded folks,keep in mind more then one explosion so moving wounded seems the smart move in this case.The major train station behind concert hall is closed,folks on social media already offering folks rides out of area to home/place to stay for the night ect.,this is why I prep and have a little faith in the humanity of average folks.

  9. “The Last Ship” tv series is a good parallel. It covers quite a few “scenarios” and many are just as JC mentioned….HELL! Americans have reached a level of pamperedness that will evacuate the society in short order. Whats left will be for the taking…..or defending!

  10. On #2 – I wonder if desertions may be not as much when current and former U.S. military are faced with reality of dealing with no food or safety for their families. I would think the U.S. Government would offer this in exchange for the soldiers working for them. A lot of unprepared people may opt for this. When its YOUR family on the line, which would you choose ?

  11. One of the side effects of the movie’s “10000 round magazine”(one that never runs out of ammo) syndrome, is that hardly anyone outside the “prepper” and “militia” communities have any idea how FAST everything will break down and run out with only a few “lifelines” severed. The fantasy has replaced reality for far to many. “10,000 dead”? No, more like 10 MILLION the first year, and those are just the ones dependent on life support drugs. The actual numbers would more than likely be MUCH higher. When you factor in the EBT dependent , the elderly, children and adults who will die from common infections without care common murder and the inevitable spike in infant/mother mortality. I think the numbers would hit 50Million + the first year and kill MORE than half the current US population before it was all over. In places that saw real combat you could see 100% population loss. Same for major cities that didn’t get “outside” support from a 3rd party actor. Even then you would see starvation and malnutrition on a scale not seen in hundreds of years. With children hit hardest(I would expect child mortality to exceed 80%) Think about the war some of you have already seen. Now see it with NO outside support. No UN Aid, No OXFAM , No refugee camps. No “third party actor” guns &ammo Just blood and suffering. That’s WHY the “big boys” KNOW that they will win without airstrikes or “boots on the ground”. All they think that they need to do is to have every interstate road and rail bridge dropped in the river and cut the power grid. Then pull back and wait for the voluntary surrender. With UN help of coarse. They don’t believe that we can or will fight. They KNOW we cannot win. G_D help us. NO ONE is prepared for the blood bath that would be a modern civil war in the US and the left and Neo-cons WANT a civil war. The Bible says “Gird your loins”. I say Buy a Sword. Because the ammo is not going to last as long as any of us think it will and anyone that refuses to bow down is going to the gas.

    • So instead of Fed forces instantly jumping in immediately, let the people fight amongst themselves, using up their resources (food, medicine, ammunition) until the population is whittled down some. THEN jump in and assume control over the winners who have virtually nothing left to fight with..

      Definitely works as a strategy.

  12. Read it a couple of times.

    First, this is no “Red Team” anything.

    Second, “…But the US government fears its own people way the fuck too much to ever start a civil war…” is a load of crap for the simple reasons that 1) this government does not fear its own people and 2) ruling governments do not start civil wars.

    S//

  13. Strikes me as so much arm-chair commando’ing. There is effectively no other side, as in unified ‘resistance’ or separatist movement. If there were, it would easily be infiltrated. Absent a motivated, organized, widespread, and well-supplied movement there is no ‘civil war’. Civil unrest, on the other hand…

  14. reading “Lucifer Effect” by Philip Zimbarbo,,explains how to train people to obey orders even though the order may go against their core beliefs..’understanding how good people turn evil’,,,
    ‘If you are going to tell the truth, you’d better have one foot in the stirrup!’ ymmv

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